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MENA in Turbulence

The new chapter “Proxy Warfare Recalibrated: Iran’s Decentralized Proxy Strategy in the New Regional Order” is now available

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A new edited volume by the well-known Turkish academic Gokhan Chinkara has been published. The volume comprises several chapters by leading scholars, focusing on the security and power vacuum in the Middle East, the US role in reshaping the region, and the impact of the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict.

My chapter focuses on Iran’s recalibrating proxy warfare strategy in the aftermath of the Gaza War and Tehran’s desperate efforts to use proxy groups against Israel and Western allies. However, such efforts fell short during the recent 12-Day war, highlighting Iran’s strategic failures. The chapter also dives into specific angles of Iran’s proxy warfare strategy and attempts to restore proxy networks in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria despite Israel’s expanding war across the region.

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Azerbaijani Politics South Caucasus Region

Russia’s Exclusion from Joint Caspian Drills Shows Regional Shift

Azerbaijan Navy delegation attends SEAFUTURE 2025 International Exhibition (PHOTO)

Executive Summary:

  • Russia’s influence in the Caspian Sea littoral has declined since 2020 due to Moscow’s war against Ukraine diminishing Russian resources and international standing, regional conflicts and reordering, and the growing navies of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Iran.
  • Türkiye has been instrumental in helping Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan modernize their navies, including shipbuilding partnerships and joint exercises, strengthening Ankara’s influence in the Caspian and South Caucasus.
  • Regional states are diversifying their military alliances, conducting joint military drills, and capitalizing on Russia’s declining leverage, while Russia seeks closer ties with Iran to maintain its influence in the Caspian Sea region.

On October 25, Azerbaijan participated in the Nusret-2025 Invitation Exercise, a joint military drill held in the Gulf of Soros in Türkiye. The exercise aimed to strengthen cooperation between the Turkish Naval Forces and the naval forces of friendly and allied countries, such as Azerbaijan (Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan; News.az, October 25). This is the latest example of Azerbaijan’s partnership with Türkiye in strengthening its naval forces. The Caucasus region, particularly the Caspian littoral, is emerging as a focal point of geopolitical competition amid rising tensions between Russia and the West. The Caspian, often referred to as a “Russian lake” during the Soviet era, has presented new challenges to Russia’s regional dominance since 2022. Until the 2020s, Russia remained the most powerful naval power in the Caspian Sea, despite Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iran systematically enhancing their naval capabilities over the past three decades (see Strategic Snapshot, August 24).

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MENA in Turbulence

Egypt and Saudi Arabia Construct a New Strategic Naval Axis

Joint Egyptian-Saudi training "Tabuk 5" wraps up in S. Arabia - EgyptToday
Concern over the reliability of U.S. security guarantees before Israel’s strike on Qatar facilitated the strategic rapprochement between Cairo and Riyadh.

On August 31, U.S. Central Command’s annual Bright Star drills commenced in Egypt, with the participation of the Saudi Arabian Royal Armed Forces.

The biennial exercises focused on strengthening interoperability and readiness across land, air, and maritime domains, featuring command-post training, field maneuvers with mechanized and armored units, counter-terrorism/irregular warfare scenarios, reconnaissance missions, and live-fire events.

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Central Asia I China I Russia

Kazakhstan Prioritizes Development of Technological Innovation

Kazakhstan's President Tokayev voted in as ruling party leader following deadly crackdown

Executive Summary:

  • Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in his annual address to the nation on September 8, announced sweeping reforms, including digitalization and the creation of a Ministry of Artificial Intelligence (AI) to modernize governance and boost efficiency.
  • The new “Digital Qazaqstan” strategy aims to unify all national AI and digital initiatives, promoting innovation-driven growth.
  • Through initiatives such as Alatau City and investments in cryptocurrency, Astana envisions Kazakhstan as a regional digital hub, diversifying partnerships beyond Russia and the People’s Republic of China, while requiring transparency and effective fiscal management for success.

On September 8, President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed, in his annual address to the nation, hosting a referendum to return to a unicameral parliament, mirroring the single-chamber Supreme Council of the early post-independence years (President of Kazakhstan, September 8; Times of Central Asia, September 10). While some argued that this decision aims to enhance governance and offer better solutions to bureaucracy within the state apparatus, the president’s proposal highlighted a commitment to major reforms. These reforms extend beyond the parliament, such as digitalization and the development of a national strategy for Artificial Intelligence (AI) (Qazinform, September 9). In a broader global context and shifting priorities in the region, Tokayev’s speech shed light on rising geopolitical contradictions, conflicts, economic inequality, and new threats, including weapons based on AI.

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Central Asia I China I Russia

The Acceleration of Putin’s Shadow War

Photo: A Russian service member takes part in drills conducted by units of the Southern Military District in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict, at a firing range in the Rostov region, Russia October 4, 2024. Credit: REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

Russia and Belarus held joint military drills in September. But the biennial exercises were overshadowed by something that may be more ominous — an outbreak of drone and aerial incursions across Poland and the Nordic-Baltic states that illustrate NATO members’ vulnerability to disabling attacks on fragile systems like civil airports.

Zapad-2025 is a well-established Kremlin method of showcasing its military capabilities to its near-neighbors. The official reason for September’s large-scale exercises is to test the ability of the two countries to repel an enemy attack, retake lost territory, and secure the borders of what they refer to as their “Union State.” 

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South Caucasus Region

Azerbaijan Attempts Pragmatic Diplomacy at SCO Summit

India blocks Azerbaijan's membership in the SCO | Baku.ws News Site - Latest News and Events

  • Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Beijing for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on August 31–September 1 emphasizes Baku’s recent push for the formation of a multivector diplomatic position.
  • Baku seeks deeper SCO engagement to boost the Middle Corridor, but India appears to have blocked Azerbaijan’s membership bid, and intra-bloc rivalries—especially India-Pakistan—undercut the SCO’s ambitions.
  • Azerbaijan’s recent initiatives and progress in the development of transport routes have underlined its strategy of balancing relations with regional and global powers through partnerships with platforms such as the SCO.

On August 30, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arrived in the People’s Republic of China (PRC)  to attend the 25th Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Tianjin (President of Azerbaijan; Azertag, August 30). Azerbaijan holds the status of a “dialogue partner” of the SCO, but is not a full member. Aliyev’s attendance at the PRC-led SCO summit came amid simmering tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia, followed by mutual accusations and bellicose rhetoric of the Russian conservative establishment against Azerbaijan (OC Media, August 12; see EDM July 7, September 9). In the face of Moscow’s open accusations and attempts to pressure Azerbaijan through frequent police raids against the local Azerbaijani diaspora, Baku is actively building alternative partnership formats in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and beyond (see EDM, April 23, 24, May 1, 7, July 17, September 10).

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Azerbaijani Politics Oil / Natural Gas / Green Energy Russia in Caucasus South Caucasus Region

Russia — Ukraine’s Accidental Matchmaker

Photo: Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev leave after a state reception at the Gulustan Palace in Baku, Azerbaijan August 19, 2024. Credit: Sputnik/Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool via REUTERS

Russian drones attacked an oil depot in Odesa in Ukraine on August 17. That’s not unusual, but that night’s target was notable in one important sense — the Kremlin struck high-profile infrastructure owned by SOCAR, Azerbaijan’s state oil company.

This was no accident. Russia had attacked the same SOCAR facility in Ukraine on August 8. Taken together with a series of other events, it has become clear that Putin’s men are sending a message. That comes at some risk to themselves and potential benefits for Ukraine.

These weren’t the first or even the most serious Russian acts of hostility against the energy-rich South Caucasian nation.  On Christmas Day, Russian missile batteries shot down a scheduled Azerbaijan Airways plane, killing 38 people. The incident caused uproar, not least because while the missile firing may have resulted from mistaken identity, Russian air controllers refused the badly damaged aircraft permission to land.

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Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence

After Israel’s wars, Iran struggles to regain regional influence

Top Iranian Adviser Visits Lebanon for High-Stakes War Negotiations - Newsweek

In mid-August, Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, visited both Lebanon and Iraq as part of Tehran’s attempt to bolster its diminished influence in the Middle East following the 12-day war with Israel in June.

The trip was also viewed as an effort to project power and revive Tehran’s regional network of proxy militias, including Hezbollah, which Israeli military operations have severely weakened over the past two years. Larijani, who is one of the most trusted political figures of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, visited Beirut on 13 August, at a time when the Lebanese state is moving ahead with plans to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year and implement a ceasefire with Israel.

Although Hezbollah sustained colossal losses within its top leadership during Israel’s war, the Iranian-backed group is reluctant to lay down its arms and become a part of the transition. Last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that “we support any decision the group makes, but we do not intervene”.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond Karabakh in the Post-War Period South Caucasus Region

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Accord: A Catastrophe for Iran?

On August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan gathered in Washington, D.C. to sign a historic U.S.-brokered peace accord in the presence of President Donald Trump. What was not included in the ink of the accord was any reference to the new geopolitical order in the South Caucasus that it cemented by capitalizing on the waning influence of Russia and Iran.  One of the key elements of the new deal includes the creation of a highly profitable strategic trade corridor that passes through both countries, making cross-border trade after decades of violent conflict. The route will run through the southern territories of Azerbaijan and Armenia, giving the former a direct land route with Turkey through its Nakhchivan exclave.

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Azerbaijani Politics Iran in Caucasus and Beyond MENA in Turbulence South Caucasus Region

Israel War Erodes Iran’s Relations with Azerbaijan

President Ilham Aliyev, President Masoud Pezeshkian hold phone talk
Iranian officials probe Israel’s alleged use of Azerbaijani airspace to hit Iranian targets

The 12-day Israel-Iran war revealed new vulnerabilities in the Islamic Republic and increased tensions between Iran and its neighbor, Azerbaijan.

In the aftermath of the strategic setback to Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Iran’s conservative political and security establishment began shifting focus toward perceived “close enemies” said to be complicit in the Israeli attacks. Among the primary targets of this narrative has been Iran’s northern neighbor, Azerbaijan, which Iranian state-run media and channels affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) accused of providing “intelligence support to Israel” during the strikes on nuclear, military, and civilian sites.

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